It deserved to win tonight. The biggest surprise for me was Sean Penn winning for his performance in Milk. I mean, he is without a doubt a great actor but I really thought Mickey Rourke would win.
Anyway, the important thing is how I fared tonight with my predictions. Last year I got a dismal 47% correct. Tonight I went 14 for 21 which is 67%. Not exactly great but I’m happy I improved over last year.
Last year I went 8 for 17, which is 47%. I think I can do better this year. This year I’m leaving out the three short film categories. So that leaves these 21 categories:
1. Actor In A Leading Role:
Mickey Rourke
This one’s pretty wrapped up.
2. Actor In A Supporting Role:
Heath Ledger
Again, a “gimme.”
3. Actress In A Leading Role:
Meryl Streep
This one was tough. It’s pretty much a coin-flip between Streep and Winslet.
4. Actress In A Supporting Role:
Viola Davis
Another hard one. Penelope Cruz may very well win this one.
5. Animated Feature Film:
Wall-E
It should have been nominated for Best Picture.
6. Art Direction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Very pretty film.
7. Cinematography:
Slumdog Millionaire
Any category with Slumdog in it is an easy category to pick. In any case, it was shot beautifully.
8. Costume Design:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
9. Directing:
Slumdog Millionaire
Of course I’ve been a Danny Boyle fan since Trainspotting. But wow, look at the talent in this category. Gus Van Sant, Ron Howard, and David Fincher. Impressive.
10. Documentary Feature:
Man On Wire
I saw this movie on DVD a month or so ago and was very impressed with the story of Phillipe Petit.
11. Film Editing:
Slumdog Millionaire
12. Foreign Language Film:
Waltz With Bashir
This movie looks very impressive.
13. Makeup:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Obviously.
14. Music (Score):
Slumdog Millionaire
15. Music (Song):
“Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire
16. Best Picture:
Slumdog Millionaire
Easily.
17. Sound Editing:
Slumdog Millionaire
18. Sound Mixing:
Slumdog Millionaire
19. Visual Effects:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
20. Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Slumdog Millionaire
21. Writing (Original Screenplay):
Wall-E
Probably my second favorite movie from last year.
So I recently saw the new Batman movie, The Dark Night, and yes, it was the best comic book movie I’ve ever seen. The late Heath Ledger turned out a sublime performance as the deeply disturbing Joker. This is not your parents Joker, folks. He is psychotic and scary as hell. He fancies himself an agent of chaos and is all the more scary because he has no rhyme or reason, no masterplan beyond just watching everything burn. At one point he says to the Batman, “The only sensible way to live in this world is without rules.”
It was a very good movie with at least one very good perfomance. But will it become the first comic book movie to win a Best Picture Oscar? Every fanboy and -girl on the internet says it will. I say it’s a long shot. There are still many movies to come out between now and Oscar time, movies that will be made specifically with the little naked gold man in mind. Ledger may very well get a posthumous nomination in the Supporting Actor category, and his performance has at least a 50-50 chance of capturing the Oscar. But that’s it for The Dark Knight. Unless we get a strange influx of very crappy movies between now and the end of the year, Batman will not be placing the gold statuette in the cave next to the giant penny.
Yay for the Coen Bros.
“That was beautiful.”
- Holly Hunter in “Raising Arizona”
No Country for Old Men.
No big surprise here.
So let’s see… By my count I went 8 for 17. Damn. Not even 50%. The lesson here: like Coen Bros. leading men, don’t bet on me being nearly as smart as I think I am.
Good night.
Just poking my head in from watching the Oscars. So far… no big surprises really. But I have to addend my previous post. “Falling Slowly” just won for the song category. I totally called that. (well, not really, but who’s counting?) See this post from RMP on May 23. 2007:
The subject: “ok, so what is everyone listening to now?”
Suhwheat.
Couple you should chiggity check:
The Aliens
This Will Destroy You
The Once Soundtrack
Prediction: Once is going to be this year’s Amelie.
Paul
So that goes to show you: I’m never wrong.
So I couldn’t be any later. The Oscars start in 16 minutes. But here goes:
Actor in a Leading Role:
Daniel Day-Lewis. But I think Clooney has a very good chance also.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Javier Bardem. So yeah, I loved No Country for Old Men. It’s hard to imagine an better movie or better performance.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Laura Linney. The ladies are in the category I know the least about. But I do like Marion Cotillard’s look in Ma Vie en Rose.
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Tilda Swinton. I dunno.
Animated Feature:
Persepolis. Great comic.
Art Direction:
Atonement. It was a beautiful movie.
Cinematography:
No Country for Old Men. Although Atonement is a good pick also. The beach shot was friggin’ amazing.
Costume Design:
Atonement.
Directing:
No Country for Old Men.
Not even talking about the docs. I mean, we don’t exactly get a lotta documentary features here in Alabama. But I’m sure I’ll catch them later on.
Film Editing:
No Country for Old Men. The pacing (mark of a good cutter) was pitch perfect.
Foreign Language? See the comments above about the docs.
Makeup:
Pirates
Music Score:
Atonement
I know nothing about the songs. Take it to the Grammy’s.
Best Picture:
No Country for Old Men. Best one I saw.
Shorts? Nah.
Sound? Were there any submarine movies? Those always win the sound Oscars. Other than that? I dunno… No Country for Old Men? In both.
Visual Effects:
The Golden Compass
Writing (Adapted)
I hate picking the writing awards. I’m going to close my eyes and pick No Country for Old Men. Although Atonement is also a big favorite. (The book was breathtaking. But the things that make it such a great book were impossible to translate to the screen. Of course it was still a great movie.)
Writing (Original)
Juno. The cool little indie usually wins the writing award.
So there. Be back later to comment on the outcomes.
